Why this matters

It reconstructs what each historical lens showed before the recorded event. It keeps misses and unscoreable cases in the published record.

Picture it this way

Imagine checking two smoke alarms after a fire. An alarm that rang before the event is a hit; silence is a miss; an alarm that could not be tested is void. Because this replay was reconstructed later, it is not the same as a warning delivered in real time.

The catch

Filing availability is proxied rather than fully reconstructed, so this is reconstructed construction-PIT analysis, not a publication-vintage validated backtest or real-money evidence.