The $282 billion day hiding inside a calm money market
SOFR is below IORB and the Standing Repo Facility is barely being touched. Seiche still flags August 18 because a large Treasury settlement lands while reserve balances sit below its estimated demand-curve kink. The contradiction, not either reading alone, is the story.
MyQuant translation desk
THE SPECIALIST SAYS
The $282 billion day hiding inside a calm money market
SOFR is below IORB and the Standing Repo Facility is barely being touched. Seiche still flags August 18 because a large Treasury settlement lands while reserve balances sit below its estimated demand-curve kink. The contradiction, not either reading alone, is the story.
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
SOFR is below IORB and the Standing Repo Facility is barely being touched. Seiche still flags August 18 because a large Treasury settlement lands while reserve balances sit below its estimated demand-curve kink. The contradiction, not either reading alone, is the story.
This fallback stays inside the source summary; the mental model below explains the mechanism without adding a market claim.
Why this matters
It names a dated check that can be revisited. It shows where the source's signals disagree.
Picture it this way
Picture the market funding system as plumbing. Seiche watches pressure, buffers, and dates when several pipes may tighten together. A stress label describes that system; it does not predict a crash.
The catch
The reserve-demand kink and forward path are Seiche derivations. Historical inputs use final or current-vintage data where publication vintages are unavailable, so this is not a validated backtest.